Trump leads Biden by 10 points in newly released national poll of the 2024 presidential race, a departure from recent surveys showing a closer contest
AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File; AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File
- A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Trump leading Biden by a 10-point margin (52%-42%).
- But WaPo suggested the survey may be an outlier after examining several subgroup results.
- Most national polls taken in recent months have showed a close race between Biden and Trump.
As President Joe Biden ramps up his 2024 reelection bid, he continues to face a skeptical electorate, with the incumbent receiving low marks on key issues including the economy and immigration.
And with Biden poised to face former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch of their 2020 contest, the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump leading the president by 10 points (52%-42%) — a result that even the newspaper suggests may be an outlier.
A Fox News national poll released earlier this month showed Trump leading Biden 48%-46% among registered voters, while a recent Quinnipiac University survey showed Biden ahead of Trump 47%-46% among registered voters. A Wall Street Journal poll released last month showed both men tied at 46% each among registered voters.
And a new NBC News poll released on Sunday also showed Biden and Trump tied at 46% among registered voters.
In explaining how Trump's 10-point lead could potentially be an outlier, The Washington Post highlighted "the difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump's and Biden's coalitions in this survey."
Should Trump become the GOP nominee, he would clearly be very competitive in a race with Biden at this juncture, but several numbers stand out in the Washington Post-ABC News poll.
In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Trump won 46% and 47% of the national popular vote, respectively. So the former president now earning support from 52% of the electorate — when he remains widely unpopular among a broad segment of voters — could be seen by many as an outlier.
The poll also found that Trump had a 30% lead with male voters (62%-32%), while Biden had a 9% edge among women (52%-43%).
In 2020, Trump won male voters by two points (50%-48%) nationally, while Biden captured the female vote by a more robust 11-point margin (55%-44%), according to Pew Research.
The new Washington Post-ABC News survey also showed Trump with a 19-point lead (55%-36%) among voters aged 18-39 and an eight-point lead among voters aged 40-64 (52%-44%), while Biden had a one-point lead (48%-47%) among voters aged 65 years and older.
In 2020, Biden easily captured both millennials and Gen Z voters by roughly 20 points, and Democrats are relying on these groups to boost the president and vulnerable Senate candidates in key swing states.
Last year, young voters came out strong for Democratic candidates, notably boosting the party's fortunes in Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, among other states.
While many Democrats have expressed concerns about Biden's low marks in polls this year, the president himself has not been shy about questioning their accuracy.
"You all told me that there was no way we were going to do well in this off-year election," Biden told Noticias Telemundo earlier this year as he referenced the 2022 midterm elections, which saw Democrats vastly outperform expectations in races across the country. "I told you from the beginning we're going to do well."
"Y'all told me I couldn't win the general election. We did well," he added.
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